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The U.S. automotive aftermarket industry experienced significant growth in 2023, with an 8.6% increase in total sales, reaching $391 billion. An updated report from MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, the Auto Care Association, and S&P Global offers a comprehensive outlook for the industry through 2027, highlighting key trends and future projections.
Key Highlights:
- Industry Growth: The U.S. automotive aftermarket grew by 8.6% in 2023, with sales totaling $391 billion.
- 2024 Forecast: Sales are expected to rise by 5.9% in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 4.5% from 2025 to 2027.
- Market Influences: Factors such as labor market dynamics, inflation outlook, consumer sentiment, vehicle sales, and e-commerce growth are shaping the industry.
- Resilient Spending: Despite inflation and low consumer sentiment, spending levels remain high, supported by rising wages and a strong labor market.
- Long-term Projections: The aftermarket is projected to grow to $472 billion by 2027.
2023 Review and 2024 Forecast Insights
The Joint Forecast Model, prepared by S&P Global, analyzes the U.S. automotive aftermarket’s performance in 2023 and provides forecasts for 2024. Despite inflation challenges, the industry showed resilience, with notable growth in dealers’ service centers, auto parts stores, and general auto repair sectors. The model anticipates a 5.9% sales increase in 2024, driven by continued consumer spending and a strong labor market.
Key Market Trends and Projections
Several trends are influencing the automotive aftermarket:
- Labor Market Dynamics: Rising wages and a robust labor market are boosting consumer spending, despite inflationary pressures.
- Inflation Outlook: The industry has effectively adjusted prices for services and parts to match inflation, which is expected to decline, reaching the Federal Reserve’s target by late 2025.
- Consumer Sentiment: While consumer sentiment is low, spending remains resilient. However, ongoing pessimism could impact future spending patterns.
- Vehicle Sales and Fleet Growth: New vehicle sales are projected to stabilize, contributing to the growth of the U.S. vehicle fleet.
- E-commerce Growth: There is a continued rise in e-commerce purchases of DIY parts, reflecting changing consumer preferences and increased convenience.
Long-term Growth Projections
In 2023, the automotive aftermarket faced similar influences as in 2022, with high inflation and resilient consumer spending. The Joint Forecast Model predicts continued growth, with the aftermarket expected to reach $472 billion by 2027. This growth is supported by the aging vehicle fleet and significant increases in both service and retail sectors.
Industry Insights and Strategic Planning
“MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers and the Auto Care Association are committed to providing industry stakeholders with valuable insights and forecasts to navigate a dynamic, shifting—and growing—automotive aftermarket,” said Paul McCarthy, president and CEO, MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers. “Our Joint Channel Forecast’s projections for long-term growth, driven by structural market tailwinds and the strength of the independent aftermarket, underscore the enduring value of repair market competition and consumer choice. Despite inflationary pressures, vehicle owners are investing more in their cars, with an aging vehicle fleet and significant growth in both service and retail sectors supporting our industry’s trajectory. The report’s analysis on how these factors are shaping our market provide essential clarity for our members as they strategize for the future.”
“The data reveals promising growth prospects for our industry, showcasing resilience in the face of challenges,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO, Auto Care Association. “As we navigate the evolving market dynamics, industry stakeholders can expect a wealth of opportunities to emerge, driven by consumer demand, the aging vehicle population and technological advancements. This forecast equips stakeholders with actionable insights to seize these opportunities and drive continued success in the automotive aftermarket.”
Accessing the Report
The Joint Channel Forecast Model report is available to Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers members as a membership benefit. Auto Care members can access the report in the 2025 Auto Care Factbook at digital.autocare.org/2025factbook. MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers can access the report at mema.org/JCF.
About Auto Care Association
The Auto Care Association represents the $400 billion-plus auto care industry, which employs over 4.5 million American workers. The association provides advocacy, education, networking, technology, market intelligence, and data resources to its members, supporting the entire supply chain of the automotive aftermarket. More information is available at autocare.org.
About MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers
MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers represents manufacturers of aftermarket components, tools, and equipment, supporting over 900,000 American jobs. As a recognized industry change agent, MEMA promotes collaboration and provides valuable resources for member companies. Learn more at mema.org/aftermarket-suppliers.
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