The U.S. light-duty automotive aftermarket is projected to grow 5.2% year-over-year in 2026 and surpass $500 billion by 2029, according to the 2026 Joint Channel Market Size and Forecast released this week by the Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers. The forecast, prepared by S&P Global Market Intelligence, is published in the 2027 Auto Care Factbook and covers projections through 2029. The associations report continued strength across non-warranty sales of parts, fluids and service labor despite global headwinds.
Highlights
- The total U.S. light-duty automotive aftermarket is projected to grow 5.2% year-over-year in 2026.
- The market is forecast to exceed $500 billion by 2029, extending the industry’s post-pandemic growth trajectory.
- Growth drivers include an aging vehicle fleet, rising vehicle complexity from ADAS penetration, and sustained consumer reliance on personal transportation.
- The forecast is available in the 2027 Auto Care Factbook and at the MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers website.
2026 Outlook Holds Despite Global Headwinds
The forecast model examines macroeconomic factors, vehicle trends and consumer behaviors shaping aftermarket growth. Even accounting for ongoing global challenges — including what the associations describe as a meaningful headwind from the Iran conflict — the outlook remains positive.
Resilient consumer behavior is expected to sustain demand, the associations report, with Americans continuing to rely on personal vehicles and logging sufficient miles driven to support aftermarket activity in line with recent years. The projection is consistent with demand signals reported in a recent AAPEX industry survey, in which six in 10 aftermarket businesses expected parts and service demand to grow in 2026.
What Is Driving Aftermarket Growth Through 2029?
The forecast identifies three structural trends expected to underpin expansion through the forecast period:
- Aging vehicle fleet: Continued aging of the U.S. light-duty fleet will drive increased demand for repair and maintenance services.
- Rising vehicle complexity: Increased penetration of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and other emerging technologies is elevating repair complexity and service value.
- Sustained consumer reliance on vehicles: Despite economic uncertainty, consumers remain dependent on personal transportation, supporting consistent aftermarket spending.
The growth projection extends the trajectory documented in the prior Joint Channel Forecast, which tracked the industry’s post-pandemic rebound.
Association Leadership on the Forecast
“The U.S. automotive aftermarket remains fundamentally strong, supported by long-term vehicle and consumer trends,” said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO, Auto Care Association. “The Joint Channel Forecast equips our members with the data and perspective they need to make informed decisions and seize opportunities in a dynamic marketplace.”
“Despite ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, the U.S. automotive aftermarket continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience, driven by consumers’ commitment to maintaining and repairing their vehicles,” said Emily Poladian, president, MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers. “This year’s Joint Channel Forecast highlights the aftermarket’s strong growth potential, driven by an aging vehicle fleet and the increasing complexity of vehicle technologies.”
The Joint Channel Forecast is developed collaboratively by the two associations and S&P Global Market Intelligence, drawing on government data, proprietary modeling and industry inputs.
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