Self-Driving Cars Emergence will be Gradual

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Source: Fierce Electronics post

FRAMINGHAM, Mass. – Despite widespread media predictions of futuristic self-driving cars traveling highways around the globe, IDC recently forecast a more gradual move to vehicle autonomy in coming years.

The analyst firm said the number of vehicles produced by carmakers with at least the lowest level of vehicle autonomy will reach 54.2 million vehicles in 2024, up from 31.4 million in 2019.  That represents an annual growth rate of 11.5 percent.

The lowest level of driving autonomy is defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) as “Level 1-driver assistance” which includes technology for autonomous active steering or braking/acceleration where the drive remains responsible and in control of the vehicle and all dynamic functions.

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Level 2—partial driving automation combines both active steering and braking/acceleration support for special dynamic driving tasks, but the driver is still expected to be in control and responsible. SAE provided an updated chart describing the levels in late 2018.

 Automation features increase in successively higher levels, reaching Level 5-full driving automation in which the autonomous driving system performs all dynamic tasks on all types of roadways and environments such as snow or rain and there is no requirement for a drive to be present or attentive.

SAE Levels 1 and 2 will be the two largest areas of autonomous growth by 2024 and half of all vehicles produced by 2024 will have some degree of automation.  Levels 4 and 5 will remain “the aspirational, revolutionary goal” by auto ecosystem companies, including chipmakers and components providers. 

“The development and deployment of these vehicles will require significant advances in technology, customer readiness and trust and government regulation,” IDC said in a report. 

IDC added it does not expect any Level 5 vehicles to be available globally during the forecast period ending in 2024.  Many analysts have forecast similar findings and recognize that widespread use of autonomous vehicles on highways won’t occur for at least decades.

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